AI Overviews Are Eating CTR in 2025: Beyond the “54%” Claim—What the Data Really Says

Updated on 2025-10-02

Google’s AI Overviews (AIO) are reshaping how people interact with search results—and yes, clicks are falling on many queries. But the headline figure you’ve seen (“AIO dominates 54% of results”) is not universally validated. The best-supported studies in 2025 show wide variation by market, device, and intent: U.S. desktop queries saw AIOs in 13.14% of searches in March 2025 per the Semrush 2025 AI Overviews study, while local business queries showed AIOs in 40.2% of searches in April per the LocalFalcon 2025 local whitepaper. In short: prevalence depends on context, and so does the impact on click-through rates (CTR).

Why the numbers conflict

Several factors create conflicting prevalence stats:

• Geography and device mix: U.S. desktop differs from mobile and other regions.
• Query intent sampling: Informational queries trigger AIOs more than transactional ones; studies with heavy informational mixes will report higher prevalence.
• Methodology and time windows: AIO triggers evolved rapidly from January to mid‑2025, so snapshots can diverge.

For example, Semrush’s U.S. analysis noted 13.14% desktop prevalence in March 2025 and documented a sharp rise from January, based on a large, intent‑heavy sample in its 2025 AI Overviews study. LocalFalcon’s whitepaper measured local business queries specifically and observed 40.2% prevalence on April 7, 2025, grounded in 60,000 simulated searches across geo-grids via the 2025 local whitepaper.

How AIO mechanically reduces clicks (and when it doesn’t)

The mechanism is straightforward: a large summary panel appears above organic results, answers the query directly, and often includes only a handful of source citations. Users get enough information to stop—or scroll more selectively.

• Cohort evidence: In a January 2024–January 2025 cohort of ≈10,000 informational keywords, organic CTR fell from 1.41% to 0.64% when AIOs were present, according to the Seer Interactive 2025 cohort analysis. Notably, when a brand was cited within the AIO, that brand’s CTR improved versus uncited peers.
• Position‑level impact: For “AIO keywords,” position 1 CTR dropped from 0.073 to 0.026 between March 2024 and March 2025—a 64% decline—per the Ahrefs 2025 analysis of AIO keyword CTR. Ahrefs also estimated that the presence of AIOs accounted for roughly a 34.5% CTR reduction versus the expected trend.
• Real behavior shifts: A March 2025 user study found people clicked a traditional result in 8% of searches when an AI summary appeared vs. 15% without; only 1% clicked links inside the AI summary; and sessions ended more often on pages with summaries (26% vs. 16%), according to the Pew Research Center 2025 study on AI summaries and clicking.
• Google’s stance: Google reports increased usage for the types of queries that show AI Overviews in major markets; that’s about engagement, not CTR, per the Google Search blog update (May 2025).

If you’re new to CTR dynamics and how SERP design displaces attention, review our Google search statistics and CTR context primer for a grounding in visibility, viewport, and click behavior.

What this means by intent and vertical

• Informational queries: Highest AIO presence, biggest CTR compression. Expect fewer clicks on top results; brands cited inside the AIO can partially offset losses.
• Local and “near me” queries: Elevated AIO prevalence (40.2% in the LocalFalcon study). Prepare for blended outcomes with maps, local packs, and summaries competing for attention.
• Transactional/commercial queries: Lower AIO prevalence (as of mid‑2025), but watch for evolving layouts that combine product knowledge with shopping modules.

The key takeaway for teams: stop treating all keywords as equal. Segment by intent and market, then prioritize mitigation where AIO prevalence and CTR compression are highest.

A living playbook to mitigate AIO‑driven CTR loss

Your goals are to be (1) eligible for citation inside AIOs, (2) positioned for selective clicks below the summary, and (3) resilient across distribution channels.

1. Rebuild briefs to target AIO answer patterns

• Capture the primary question and the follow‑ups AIO typically answers.
• Map entities (people, places, products) that connect the topic; ensure precise naming and disambiguation.
• Add a citations checklist (original data, clear definitions, timestamps) to increase credibility and eligibility.
• Include schema targets likely relevant to the query class (FAQ, HowTo, Product, Organization), and ensure technical validity.

2. Format for SERP design

• Lead with a concise, fact‑dense answer paragraph.
• Add scannable modules: short lists, tables, step sequences, and images when they clarify answers.
• Provide source‑backed statements with dates and methods to signal E‑E‑A‑T.

3. Build a compact SERP lab

• For your top 50–200 keywords, record whether AIO appears, how often it shows over two weeks, and whether your brand is cited.
• Note pixel height approximations (desktop/mobile), number of citations visible, and any multimedia components (videos, calculators).
• Tag keywords by intent (informational, local, transactional) and vertical; re‑prioritize briefs accordingly.

4. Operationalize with a practical workflow example

On teams where content ops must scale, a template‑driven workflow helps. In our environment, we use QuickCreator to embed AIO‑targeted elements into briefs—entities, query‑aligned questions, and a citations checklist—then iterate with SERP feedback. Disclosure: QuickCreator is our product.

• For capabilities and editor overview, see the QuickCreator AI platform overview.
• To implement the workflow end‑to‑end, follow the step‑by‑step QuickCreator workflow guide.

Important: We do not claim specific traffic lifts; the value here is standardizing briefs, aligning answers to AIO patterns, and measuring outcomes cleanly.

Measurement: prove impact and prioritize intelligently

Set up two cohorts in your analytics and rank tracking:

• Cohort A: Queries where AIO is present
• Cohort B: Queries without AIO

Track monthly:

• Organic CTR by position (1–10) in both cohorts
• Share of queries with brand citations inside AIO
• Scroll recovery: clicks gained below positions 6–10 vs. baseline
• Changes in query intent mix and SERP features (maps, shopping, video)

Annotate all dashboards when Google rolls out core updates or AIO UX changes. Tie your refresh cadence to the evolving parts of this article.

Next steps

• Run a 2‑week SERP lab on your top informational and local keywords; tag AIO presence, citations, and layout notes.
• Rewrite briefs for the top‑risk queries with answer‑first, entity‑rich, and schema‑validated templates.
• Standardize monthly reporting for AIO vs. non‑AIO cohorts; annotate changes alongside updates to this article.
• If you need a fast way to operationalize templates and iteration, you can implement the brief model inside QuickCreator’s editor and workflows. Keep it neutral and test-driven.

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Change‑log (last updates)

• 2025-10-02: Added prevalence ranges (U.S. 13.14%; local 40.2%) and CTR/behavior evidence from Seer (2025), Ahrefs (2025), and Pew (2025). Clarified Google’s usage statement (May 2025). Noted that the “54% dominance” claim is contested and context‑dependent.